Residential Roundup

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<div>There are few who would question the need to deliver more homes. Research from Centre for Cities suggests Britain has a 4.3 million home deficit compared with the average European country. Meaning we would need to build almost 450,000 homes per annum over the next 25 years to satisfy future demand and address the historic deficit. At present we struggle to hit 200,000.</div>

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Residential Roundup - 1 September

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    <h2><strong style="background-color:initial;font-size:inherit;text-align:inherit;text-transform:inherit;word-spacing:normal;caret-color:auto;white-space:inherit;">Q2 2023 Sales Index</strong><br /></h2>
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<p><strong></strong>The JLL Prime Central London Index saw prices fall for the third consecutive quarter.&nbsp; The Q2 2023 index recorded a quarterly fall of 2.1%, with prices 5.9% down compared with the same period in 2022. Prices are now 6.8% lower than
    they were when prices peaked in the third quarter last year.&nbsp; </p>
<p>The upper echelons of London&rsquo;s prime market are proving more resilient. With prices down 0.8% in the 12 months to June 2023 compared with a 6.7% fall in homes priced at under &pound;2 million (likely to be most impacted by changes in interest rates).
</p>
<p>Despite sentiment impacting prices we saw deals agreed (exchanges) increase in an admittedly slow Q1 this quarter, with a 28% increase in sales in Q2 2023.&nbsp; With volumes on par with Q2 2022 (down -1.2%). </p>
<p>Stock levels rose in Q2, with 8.3% more properties on the market than in Q2 2022 and 9.7% more than at the end of the first quarter this year. Stock on the market is now at the highest level since the end of Q2 2020. </p>
<h2><strong>Q2 2023 Lettings Index</strong></h2>
<p><strong></strong>The uncertainty which is hampering activity in the sales market often has the opposite effect on lettings. With households more likely to stay in rented for longer or choosing to rent when delaying their decision to buy. Just over half
    (51%) of JLL deals agreed in Q2 2023 were renewals, up from 45% a year ago and 24% in Q2 2021. This was the highest rate of renewal since Q2 2020. </p>
<p>The number of new lets rose this quarter compared with last, up 13%.&nbsp; But the second quarter is usually more active than the first. Comparing new lets agreed (excluding renewals) in the second quarter this year with Q2 last year showing there were
    18% fewer deals agreed, with the number agreed down 35% compared with the Q2 five-year average.</p>
<p>This quarter the JLL Prime Central London Index saw rents rise by 1.9%, with rents 5.4% higher than they were at the same point a year ago. Small flats (1 and 2 beds) saw this highest annual increase in rents at 6.7% whereas more expensive properties
    (&pound;3,000 per week or more) saw a more modest 2.9% annual increase. </p>
<p>Rents are now 26% higher for one-bedroom flats (which have seen the highest growth) than they were three years ago at the end of Q2 2020. With the JLL Prime Central London Rental Index 19.2% higher overall over the last three years.</p>
<p>For prospective tenants having to contend with low stock levels there appears to be some respite as we move into the summer. Stock levels are starting to increase, albeit off a low base. With the number of rental properties listed to let at the end of
    Q2 2023 up 13.8% on the same point in 2022. But volumes remain 55% down on levels we were seeing pre-pandemic in Q2 2019. </p>
<h2>All Source: JLL/ LonRes</h2>
<p><strong>Our JLL Prime Central London Index is based on a &lsquo;basket&rsquo; of properties, valued by JLL at the end of each quarter. </strong></p>
<p><strong>Director of UK Residential Research at JLL, Marcus Dixon, explains: </strong></p>
<p><em>&ldquo;The implications of stubborn inflation on the UK mortgage market are hampering activity in prime central London. While fewer buyers are heavily indebted - almost half buy cash - uncertainty surrounding the short-term outlook is impacting prices. </em><em></em></p>
<p><em>&ldquo;The lettings market remains competitive, stock levels have improved on their 2022 lows but there are still more prospective tenants than there are properties. This has resulted in further rent increases this quarter, with rents almost 20% higher than they were in 2020.</em><em></em></p>
<p><em>&ldquo;The lower end of the rental market continues to see a steady stream of (formerly) prospective buyers moving across into lettings. With smaller properties, mainly one- and two-bedroom flats, recording the highest annual increase in rents, while prices for similar properties are seeing more significant falls than homes in more expensive price bands.&rdquo;</em></p>

JLL – Prime Central London (PCL) Index – Q2 2023

The recent rise in interest rates does not impact all sectors of the housing market equally.

Prime Central London (PCL) Index – Q2 2023

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<p>The Renters (Reform) Bill was introduced to parliament on 17th May 2023. It follows the 2022 private rented sector white paper, which outlined the government&rsquo;s aspirations for the future of privately rented homes. The bill aims to deliver on the
    government&rsquo;s plan to &ldquo;bring in a better deal for renters&rdquo;, which includes the ending of &lsquo;no fault&rsquo; evictions. These changes of course have implications for landlords too, but the bill aims to allay some of their concerns
    by strengthening Section 8 powers under which landlords can recover their properties.</p><p>Further regulation includes proposals for a new property portal and rental redress scheme, which aim to make it easier for landlords and tenants to resolve issues and for councils to track and penalise rogue landlords. For landlords, increased use of
    Section 8 could also make it easier to identify tenants with a history of rent arrears and antisocial behaviour, aiding the tenant referencing process and mitigating risk for those taking on new tenants.</p><p>But we are still at an early stage. The bill is entering the approval period, where questions on the detail behind the proposals can be answered and views sought. The bill must follow a set path before receiving Royal Assent and becoming law. The next
    step will be a second reading, giving MPs the opportunity to scrutinise the bill and make any amendments to the proposals. This will also be an opportunity for interested parties to contact their MP to put forward their views on the proposals.</p><p>The bill must then progress through committee, parliament, and the House of Lords before details are agreed and Royal Assent is sought. This is a lengthy process, with the time from bills being introduced to becoming law often exceeding 12 months.</p><h2>Current proposals include:</h2><p><strong>The end of the AST - </strong>Section 21 will be abolished, aiming to provide tenants with greater security. Fixed term tenancies will be scrapped, meaning a tenancy will end only if the tenant chooses to leave (usually by giving two months&rsquo;
    notice) or the landlord is able to provide a valid reason to end the tenancy. To assist with this Section 8 will be strengthened to allow landlords to recover their properties. From six months into the tenancy landlords may give the tenant notice
    (usually two months) to vacate if they are looking to move back into the property, sell or redevelop. Landlords can also gain possession if the tenant is in breach of their tenancy or falls into arrears.</p><p>If implemented, it is likely changes will apply first to new tenancies, with existing tenancies transitioned across into the new structure within a pre-defined period. There are some exemptions for students lets, however this could we be one of the elements
    of the bill where we see some changes introduced.</p><p><strong>Annual rental reviews&nbsp;</strong><strong>&ndash;</strong><strong>&nbsp;</strong>Rental increases will be limited to one per year, with new powers for tenants to challenge above market rate rental increases through a tribunal.
</p><p><strong>Pets&nbsp;</strong><strong>&ndash;</strong><strong>&nbsp;</strong>Landlords must have reasonable grounds to refuse a tenant the right to request a pet in their rented property. It is not yet clear what constitutes &lsquo;reasonable grounds&rsquo;,
    hopefully this will become clearer as the process progresses, but tenants who are refused can use the new redress scheme to refer the final decision to the ombudsman. For landlords, existing regulations will be strengthened to ensure tenants are liable
    for any damages caused by their pets.</p><p><strong>Redress scheme &ndash; </strong>Proposals for a single redress scheme for both landlords and tenants. The ombudsman will provide a free service if tenants have complaints regarding their landlord, the standard of the property, or any outstanding
    repairs. Under current proposals landlords would not be able to make a complaint about a tenant to the ombudsman but they could be offered mediation services to settle disputes between them and their tenants. Landlords would be required to join the
    scheme with local councils empowered to take enforcement action against those who fail to sign up. Lettings agents will not be required to join.</p><p><strong>New property portal &ndash; </strong>Landlords will need to sign up to a new property portal. This will be a digital record of the landlord and their properties. Landlords will need to be registered and keep records on themselves and their rental
    properties up to date to legally market a property to let. Proposals are for councils to have access to the portal to enable them to flag any unspent offences or restrictions in the landlord&rsquo;s name.</p><p>More detail on the bill can be found <a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/guide-to-the-renters-reform-bill" target="_blank">here</a>.</p><p>Our team here at JLL will keep you updated throughout the process and are here to answer any questions you may have on the bill or the implications for you as a landlord or tenant.</p><h2>JLL Research | June 2023</h2><p>JLL is a leading global professional services firm specialising in real estate and investment management, with $16.6bn annual revenue in 2020, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of over 90,000. With over 7,000 employees and 15 offices
    in the UK, we support our investor, developer and occupier clients at every stage of the property lifecycle across both commercial and residential asset classes. This includes land purchase, access to capital, planning, development advisory, leasing,
    building management and sales.</p><p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><sup>Disclaimer: <sup>&copy;</sup> 2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or
    warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any
    form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves
    the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</sup>
</p>

Renters Reform Bill

The Renters (Reform) Bill was introduced to parliament on 17th May 2023. It follows the 2022 private rented sector white paper, which outlined the government&rsquo;s aspirations for the future of privately rented homes.

The Renters (Reform) Bill was introduced to parliament on 17th May 2023. It follows the 2022 private rented sector white paper, which outlined the government’s aspirations for the future of privately rented homes.

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<p><strong>The housing market remains more resilient than many had anticipated. The latest results from the RICS Survey show market conditions remain challenging, with agents still expecting prices to fall in the coming months in response to higher borrowing costs and uncertain market sentiment. But the outlook for the next 12 months remained more positive. </strong></p><p><strong>Over the longer term there is a clear commitment from both Labour and the Conservatives to support home ownership. But until we see rates top out, we expect the market to continue to tread water. This means lower levels of activity, but prices will, we expect, remain more resilient as a lack of distress and high levels of equity act as a buffer to more challenging economic conditions. </strong></p><h2>The economy</h2><p>The outlook for the UK economy is improving, with the IMF upgrading their 2023 UK forecast. Echoing recent announcements from the Bank of England the IMF no longer expects the UK will fall into recession this year, with their latest forecasts expecting
    GDP will rise in 2023. Growth is expected to be modest at +0.4% but reflects a welcome venture into positive territory following the previous -0.3% forecast in April. This improved outlook means the UK no longer sits at the bottom of the list of G7
    economies for 2023, now moving ahead of Germany.</p><p>But inflation is still proving stickier than many had hoped. Rates have fallen, with single digit annual increases for the first time since August 2022. It was always anticipated that rates would drop back this month, with the impact of rising energy
    costs priced into rates a year ago, but the 8.7% annual increase remained higher than the Bank of England and many forecasters had anticipated.</p><p>Further falls in energy costs in the coming months will help to bring inflation down further, but annual food price inflation remains at 19.1% according to the latest ONS figures.</p><p>Core inflation (calculating the rise in costs when energy and food, alcohol and tobacco are stripped out) rose by 6.8% in the year to April, up from 6.2% in March. With the recent increase in five-year swap rates and stubbornly high inflation meaning
    a further rise in Bank Rate at the June MPC appears more likely.</p><h2>New development</h2><p>Activity in the new homes market remains muted. While schemes on site continue to deliver homes, levels of new starts have dropped and activity in the sector has been more subdued in Q1. The National House Building Council (NHBC) reported new build completions
    fell 7% annually in Q1 2023 but the number of new homes registered to be built fell 40% to less than 28,000. This follows news that new applications in 2022 fell 14% on 2021 levels, now at their lowest level since 2006, according to figures from the
    DLUHC. In London, Molior reports constructions starts down 43% on Q1 2022.</p><h2>House prices</h2><p>Considering the considerable change that has been thrust upon the UK housing market this year it remains remarkably robust. Activity has dropped back, but we are starting to see the reaction to the initial interest rate and sentiment shock following the
    mini budget recede, as prospective buyers re- enter the market. With time on the market and mortgage approvals all starting to recover from the lows of late 2022 and early 23.</p><p>Low levels of unemployment, wage growth (albeit mostly below inflation), and more equity within the market all mean forced sales are less prevalent. But for those who are looking to transact in this market there does need to be some realism about prices
    and additional cost facing purchasers.</p><p>The latest Land Registry figures show all regions saw a monthly fall in prices in March, with prices UK wide 1.2% lower than in February, the fourth consecutive monthly fall. Prices are now 2.4% below their November peak but remain 4.1% higher than they
    were a year ago.</p><p>After seven consecutive monthly falls the Nationwide reported house prices rose 0.5% in April, but prices dropped back marginally in the latest May figures, down 0.1% month-on-month with prices falling annually by -3.4%, now -4% lower than they were at
    the peak last summer. The Halifax reported at -0.3% fall in April, following a rise of 0.8% the previous month, with prices on par (+0.1%) with April 2022. First time buyer activity is proving more resilient than expected, with a competitive rental
    market driving those who can to buy instead.</p><p>Falls in achieved prices show higher rates and rising costs are impacting the housing market, although both activity and prices appear more resilient than many had expected. The latest figures from Rightmove show asking prices rose in May, up 1.8%, higher
    than the usual 1.0% May figure.</p><p>Uncertainty over rates appears to have put the brakes on the recovery in mortgage approvals posted in March. Seasonally adjusted figures from the Bank of England showing the number of mortgages approved for house purchase fell by 5%, from 51,500 in March
    to 48,700 in April. The average rate on new mortgages rose to 4.46% in April, up 5 basis points on March figures. Overall borrowers repaid &pound;1.4bn more than was lent in April 2023, which aside from the pandemic was the biggest net repayment on
    record.</p><h2>Rents</h2><p>The rental market continues to record near double digit growth in rents on new lets. The Homelet Rental Index showing annual rental growth remains strong at 9.9% across the UK in April 2023, with a current average rent of &pound;1,199, 1.3% higher than
    the March figure. London saw rents rise annually by 11.0%, with average rents on new lets exceeding &pound;2,000 per month. Scotland saw the highest annual increase, with rents on new lets rising 12.1%.</p><h2>Global view</h2><p>In the US, the Federal Reserve increased its key interest rate by 25 basis points, pushing its benchmark rate to between 5% and 5.25%. This is the tenth time rates have increased since March 2022. Rates could be topping out though with the Fed hinting
    at a pause on further rate rises when they next meet in June.</p><p>Singapore has announced a doubling of its Additional Buyer Stamp Duty. Overseas buyers purchasing a property in Singapore will now pay 60% tax on their purchase, with those buying using a trust will pay 65%. Permanent residents buying second homes in
    the city will also pay more.</p><h2>What&rsquo;s new from JLL</h2><p>Our latest Prime Central London report shows rents rose again in Q1 2023, but prices have dropped 4.3% compared with Q1 2022. Read more <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/prime-central-london-q1-2023">here </a></p><h2>JLL Research | May 2023</h2><p>JLL is a leading global professional services firm specialising in real estate and investment management, with $16.6bn annual revenue in 2020, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of over 90,000. With over 7,000 employees and 15 offices
    in the UK, we support our investor, developer and occupier clients at every stage of the property lifecycle across both commercial and residential asset classes. This includes land purchase, access to capital, planning, development advisory, leasing,
    building management and sales.</p><p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing.</p><p><sup>Disclaimer: <sup>&copy;</sup>2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations
    or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in
    any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL
    reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</sup>
</p>

JLL Residential Market Update – May 2023

The housing market remains more resilient than many had anticipated. The latest results from the RICS Survey show market conditions remain challenging, with agents still expecting prices to fall in the coming months in response to higher borrowing costs and uncertain market sentiment. But the outlook for the next 12 months remained more positive.

The housing market remains more resilient than many had anticipated. The latest results from the RICS Survey show market conditions remain challenging, with agents still expecting prices to fall in the coming months in response to higher borrowing

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Spotlight on Cambridge

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JLL Residential - Spotlight on Cambridge&nbsp;

JLL Residential - Spotlight on Cambridge

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Affordable and attractive London hotspots for First Time Buyers

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House prices have risen significantly nationally over the last three years, and it feels as if the first step onto the housing ladder has become more challenging. Despite this, the dream of owning their first home for many is not dwindling.

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<p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1683722906/resi/gb/Articles/PDFs/PCL_Report_Q1_2023_-_V8.pdf" target="_blank"><button class="Button primary" style="text-align:center;">Download full report</button></a></p>
<p>A higher proportion of homes bought with cash and a sustained lack of stock in the most sought-after locations means Prime Central London (PCL) is less tied to fluctuations in UK mortgage rates.<strong> </strong>However, the central London market is not
    immune to changes in economic conditions, with sentiment rather than interest rates often having a greater impact on activity and pricing. And while Prime Central London is less reliant on debt the discretionary nature of many purchasers buying decisions
    means PCL is often more reactive to changes in sentiment and economic headwinds than mainstream, both when prices fall and when they increase.</p>
<p>&nbsp;For the rental market, uncertainty often increases demand with prospective purchasers holding off on their decision to purchase and renting or remaining in rented instead. We continue to see demand outstripping supply for prime homes, but there
    is more balance in the market this year than we have seen over the last 12 months. Stock levels, while still significantly lower than the pre-pandemic norms have improved, and rental growth recorded in the Q1 2023 JLL Prime Central London Index has
    returned to single rather than double digit annual growth.</p>
<p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1683722906/resi/gb/Articles/PDFs/PCL_Report_Q1_2023_-_V8.pdf" target="_blank"><button class="Button primary" style="text-align:center;">Download full report</button></a></p>

Prime Central London – Q1 2023

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How has the Prime Central London (PCL) housing market performed so far this year, and how much of an impact will the ongoing economic headwinds have on the sector?

<strong>How has the Prime Central London (PCL) housing market performed so far this year, and how much of an impact will the ongoing economic headwinds have on the sector?</strong>

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<p><strong>Inflation remained stubbornly in double digits (just) in March. With a rate of 10.1% meaning expectations of
        a further rate rise at the next MPC meeting are looking more likely. Consensus amongst forecasters is for rates
        to now top out higher than the 4.25% to 4.5% anticipated earlier in the year. Albeit, then expected to fall back
        later this year. Confidence in the UK economy is returning, with ratings agency S&amp;P Global upgrading the UK
        rating, reversing the post mini-budget downgrade, as well as reaffirming the AA rating for UK debt.</strong></p><p>News is mixed on the jobs front too. Unemployment edged up in March to 3.8%, from 3.7% in February. The number of
    payrolled employees is rising, with figures showing a million more payrolled workers nationally in March 2023
    compared with pre-pandemic
    in March 2020 (a 3.5% increase). Rates had risen the most in London (+4.0%) and Northern Ireland (+5.0%) in the
    three years to March. Despite this the job market has been slightly less frenetic than it has been of late, with
    government figures showing
    the number of vacancies fell for the ninth consecutive month in March, albeit at 1.1 million they remain higher than
    the pre-pandemic norms. Wage growth in the three months to February averaged 6.6%. But spending power continues to
    be eroded by increases
    in living costs, particularly food and energy, with real wages (accounting for inflation) dropping 2.3%.</p><h2>Sales market</h2><p>The latest figures on house prices show quite a spread in performance between indices, with the Nationwide figures
    for March suggesting an annual fall of 3.1%, with prices falling for the seventh consecutive month. Figures from the
    Halifax put prices
    in March 1.6% higher than they were a year ago, up 0.8% on the previous month (Nationwide is reporting a 0.8%
    monthly fall). The Land Registry, tracking completions and usually less reactive to changes in the market, is
    reporting February figures,
    with prices down 1.0% monthly but still showing an annual increase of 5.5%.</p><p>But the consensus amongst agents is that prices have softened so far this year. The latest RICS survey suggesting
    respondents were more likely to have seen houses prices fall in their market in the last three months, with the net
    balance -47% for the
    UK and -43% for London.</p><p>According to the RICS survey, demand for homes remained more subdued in March too.&nbsp; More agents reported a
    reduction in new buyer enquiries, with the net balance relatively unchanged from the previous month at -29%
    nationally. London respondents
    reported a fall in new buyer enquiries too, but results were less clear cut, with a net balance of -7% seeing fewer
    buyers.</p><h2>The mortgage market</h2><p>Just over 40,000 loans were approved for house purchase in February, 37% up on the lows of January 2023 but still 37%
    down on volumes last February and 18,000 (31%) shy of February 2019 levels. Yet despite further rises in the Bank
    Rate, fixed rates offered
    by lenders are more competitive, with both two- and five-year fixed rates at their most competitive since the
    mini-budget in March 2023, with rates sub 4.3% for a two-year fix and below 4.8% for a five-year according to
    figures from the Bank of England.</p><h2>The rental market</h2><p>Rents are still rising nationally.&nbsp; The latest figures from Homelet show all UK regions saw rents rise both
    annually and month-on-month. UK rents rose to a new high of &pound;1,184 per month, up 0.8% on February 2023 and
    9.8% on March 2022. London
    recorded the highest annual increase of any UK region, with rents up 0.2% monthly and 11.8% annually in March.</p><p>Tenant demand nationally continues to be strong. The non-seasonally adjusted net balance is at a five months high of
    +46%, while landlord instructions still lag, with more agents reporting landlord instructions falling in the last
    three months. In London,
    market conditions are similar, with more agents reporting an increase in tenants registering (the net balance
    increased from +31% to +40% month-on-month) and landlord instructions failing to keeping pace with demand, with a
    net balance of -20% in
    March. A shortage of stock combined with strong demand is expected to put additional pressure on rents. The
    near-term rent expectations balance (those expecting them to rise) increased from +45% to +59% month-on-month.</p><h2>Forecasts</h2><p>JLL forecasts remain unchanged. We anticipate price falls in most markets this year as purchasers try to balance
    increases in living costs and higher interest rates. But with significant levels of equity and a resilient
    employment market we expect these
    falls to be limited to single digits in 2023. Rents are forecast to rise in all markets this year, supported by
    increases in wages and supply shortages.<br /></p><h2>JLL Research | April 2023</h2><p>JLL is a leading global professional services firm specialising in real estate and investment management, with
    $16.6bn annual revenue in 2020, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of over 90,000.&nbsp; With
    over 7,000 employees and 15
    offices in the UK, we support our investor, developer and occupier clients at every stage of the property lifecycle
    across both commercial and residential asset classes. This includes land purchase, access to capital, planning,
    development advisory,
    leasing, building management and sales.</p><p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end
    service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent,
    co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><sup>Disclaimer: <sup>&copy;</sup> 2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.Data within this report is based on
    material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no
    representations or warranties as to
    the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a
    general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any
    form or by any means
    without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability,
    damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL
    reserves the right to pursue
    criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</sup></p>

JLL Residential Market Update – April 2023

Inflation remained stubbornly in double digits (just) in March. With a rate of 10.1% meaning expectations of a further rate rise at the next MPC meeting are looking more likely.

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<p>2022 was a record-breaking year for Prime
Central London (PCL). Buyers spent almost &pound;5.2
billion on homes last year, 9% higher than in
2021, already a strong year, and the highest
amount spent for more than ten years. Even in
2014, when sales reached &pound;4.94 billion, 5% less
was spent than in 2022.</p><p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/drt5ol8ck/image/upload/v1673866400/videos/APAC%20Articles/JLL_PCL_Report_Q4_2022.pdf" target="_blank">Download report </a></p>

Prime Central London Report - Q4 2022

thumbnail_Cover Photo - UK Report

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<p><a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/5c2aeccd86c64c6abe619f4e73b8b183" target="_blank"><button class="Button primary">View the full report</button></a></p><br /><p><strong>The JLL Big Six Residential Report compares activity, prices, and rents across six UK cities outside London: Birmingham, Bristol, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds and Manchester. This report incorporates data from the JLL UK Cities index, comparing changes in prices and rents across mainstream and prime developments in each city. </strong></p><p>In the last ten years UK cities have recorded some of the highest increases in new residents. Figures from the 2021 census show that across England &amp; Wales more than 33.6 million people, over 56% of the population, lived in cities, 2 million more
    than in 2011. </p><p>With the pandemic accelerating the adoption of hybrid working some questioned the future of urban living. But the influx of new residents heading for our regional cities proves there is more to city living than just the attraction of a short commute.
</p><p>Demand for homes has risen across our Big Six cities this year. Back in 2020 and early 2021 we saw an acceleration in the number of households looking to leave urban areas and escape to the country. Yet 2022 has firmly signalled the return to the city.
    Students and young professionals are returning in their droves. Rents have risen this year across all our Big Six cities and the new homes market, both build-to-sell and build-to-rent has seen activity increase too. </p><p>Help to Buy has been a key source of demand for city centre new build over the last ten years. Across the four English cities, over 13,200 equity loans have been issued on Help to Buy homes since the beginning of the scheme. &nbsp;But with 31 October
    marking the end of Help to Buy registrations nationally we were already anticipating interest from first-time buyers would fall in 2023. Combine this with recent rate rises and we expect the number of first-time buyers could fall further.&nbsp;But
    with fewer households buying homes we anticipate demand for rental properties will increase. </p><p>Almost 100,000 homes have been completed in the city centres of the Big Six in the last ten years. </p><p>Demand for homes has meant prices achieved in the last three years have risen by an average of 14.6%. The JLL Cities index, which values new flats in each city shows prices have risen by between 4.9% and 17.6%. </p><p>Demand for rental properties has increased too. With rents rising by an average of 15.4% across the Big Six. Leeds recorded the highest annual increase in rents, with scarcity of stock pushing average rents for new homes in the city up by more than 20%
    in summer 2022 compared with the same period a year earlier.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/5c2aeccd86c64c6abe619f4e73b8b183" target="_blank"><button class="Button primary">View the full report</button></a></p>

Big Six Residential Development Report

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The JLL Big Six Residential Report compares activity, prices, and rents across six UK cities outside London: Birmingham, Bristol, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds and Manchester.

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<a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1667401050/resi/gb/Articles/PDFs/JLL_UK_Residential_Forecasts_Q4_2022.pdf" target="_blank"><button class="Button primary">Download full report</button></a>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The last 15 years have seen UK house prices reach new highs on the back of a period of record low borrowing costs. Never prior to 2008 had the UK base interest rate dipped below 2%. But in the period since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) it has averaged
    0.5% and hit a low of 0.1% during Covid.</p>
<h2><strong>Interest Rates</strong></h2><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/11644913/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;text-align:center;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe>
<p><br />A spike in borrowing costs &ndash; and an anticipated further steep rise in mortgage rates - alongside continued high inflation and a rising cost-of-living have prompted predictions from the most bearish forecasters of 20%-30% falls in UK house
    prices. </p>
<p>But UK house prices have never fallen by more than 20%. And this prompts a question of whether the underlying market prospects are now truly worse than the early 90s recession where house prices fell 20% cumulatively between 1989 and 1993; and the GFC
    where prices fell by 15% between January 2008 and May 2009.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2><strong>House price crashes have been rare in the UK</strong></h2><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/11645505/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;text-align:center;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe>
<p>In the early 90s, inflation was high (like today) and GDP was low and falling into negative territory (like today). But, a key differentiator was that unemployment was extremely high at circa 10% in the early 1990s &ndash; today it is at a record low
    of 3.5%. And while unemployment is expected to rise in the coming 18 months, it is expected to hit 4.9%, below the average of 6.7% since 1971 and the past 10-year average of circa 5.2%.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the GFC was fundamentally a credit crisis built on poor lending practices through the early 2000s which saw people with poor credit history and no equity lent sums of money they could ill-afford to repay. Ultimately the &lsquo;house of cards&rsquo;
    collapsed, banks failed, millions lost their jobs and people were forced to walk away from mortgages they could never afford in the first place.</p>
<p>In the period since, lending practices have been tightened significantly &ndash; and the housing market is now built upon much stronger foundations.</p>
<h2><strong>Absence of distress</strong></h2>
<p>JLL analysis of the Bank of England Mortgage and Lending Report found that 62% of the UK&rsquo;s 8.4m mortgaged owner occupier households have at least 25% equity in their house. Another 34% have between 10-25% equity and 4% have between 5% and 10% equity.</p>
<p>Just 0.2% or circa 17,000 owner occupied households in the UK have less than 5% equity &ndash; and, statistically at least, there are no households with zero equity. Meanwhile, more than 95% of the circa 3m UK buy to let landlords who own with a mortgage,
    own at least 20% in their property.</p>
<h2><strong>Mortgage affordability</strong></h2>
<p>But ultimately the amount of equity the UK&rsquo;s homeowners possess only tells half of the story. An era of cheap borrowing is ending and mortgage affordability is about to become squeezed. However, mortgaged households in the UK have the highest incomes
    by tenure &ndash; averaging &pound;80,000 per annum. Before the recent rise in UK interest rates, the average household income spent on a UK mortgage was equivalent to 18%. With the average two-year fixed rate mortgage cost having risen to circa 6%,
    that income to mortgage expenditure percentage has risen to circa 27% - the level it was around the time of the Global Financial Crisis. And if mortgage rates hit 7%, the average household income to mortgage cost ratio would hit 30% - the rate it
    was in the early 1990s. But merely spending 30% of a household income on housing costs is not a reason to assume a collapse into distress. With low unemployment and the highest average incomes, the UK&rsquo;s mortgaged households have a more stable
    financial footing than the GFC or the early 1990s recession.</p>
<p>The vast majority should be able to ride out a squeeze on their household incomes avoiding the need to sell their home to make ends meet. But it will be a further extension of the current cost of living crisis.</p>
<p>Circa 1.1m households were on the current Standard Variable Rate coming into this recent rate rise. Another 1.2m households will come to the end of their fixed term over the next year. JLL calculates that those 2.3m households combined will be spending
    an additional &pound;8bn on mortgages by Q4 2023. This could ease some of the current high inflation, but it could also hamper GDP growth. The customers spending that extra on their mortgage would perhaps most likely be transferring that from their
    previous savings/investment allocations or from their typical discretionary spend on food, leisure and entertainment.</p>
<h2><strong>Low repossessions</strong></h2>
<p>Furthermore, banks currently have a low appetite for repossessions. In the early 1990s, banks repossessed circa 100,000 homes per annum. In the GFC the rate was about 50,000 per annum. Currently there are about 4,000 repossessions per annum which out
    of the UK&rsquo;s circa 11m mortgage properties represents a rate of about 0.04% per year. It takes two years to repossess a home &ndash; and in the current cost of living crisis, it could be a difficult public profile position to be seen to be adopting
    a repossession strategy. However, banks are a regulated entity so they cannot turn a blind eye to customer defaults. But there are other options that can be explored such as tracker rates or interest only periods and it is highly likely banks will
    exhaust all these options before pursuing a route of foreclosure.</p>
<h2><strong>Opportunistic buyers</strong></h2>
<p>Ultimately, we expect that there will be far less distress in the market as there was in previous crashes &ndash; as long as there is no sharp rise in unemployment.</p>
<p>But JLL predicts there will be a steep fall in UK housing transactions.</p>
<p>The number of First Time Buyers (FTBs) before the GFC typically totalled 400,000 per annum out of a total of circa 1.5m annual transactions.</p>
<p>Post GFC, FTBs fell to 325,000 and total transactions to 1.2m. JLL predicts there will now be circa 200,000 viable FTBs with sentiment among aspiring homeowners taking a hit, mortgage affordability becoming stretched to new homeowners and the ending of
    help to buy, which typically helped circa 50,000 FTBs onto the ladder per annum. This cocktail of transactional headwinds will see overall transactions fall to circa 1m in 2023.</p>
<p>The transactions that do occur will be dominated by slightly more motivated sellers (but not financially distressed) faced with a higher proportion of &lsquo;opportunistic&rsquo; buyers (such as cash buyers who will account for about 25% of all transactions,
    up from the current 18%). These opportunistic buyers will not expect to pay asking price. But the vendors who are not distressed will only accept a fall in values to a certain level &ndash; ie more of a discount than a fully blown correction and certainly
    not a crash.<strong></strong></p>
<h2><strong>Sluggish market</strong></h2>
<p>This dynamic will create a sluggish market in which buyers and vendors haggle over price and ultimately less transactional activity occurs with the supply of new homes for sale gradually becoming constrained.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Against this backdrop, JLL is forecasting that UK house prices will fall in value in 2023 by 6% which equates to an average discount of &pound;17,500 from the average UK house price of circa &pound;290,000.</p>
<p>Of course, as in any market, there will be winners and losers. Not all types of home, cities or regions will be impacted to same level.</p>
<p>On a regional level JLL&rsquo;s forecasts falls ranging from circa 4% across Greater London to around 8% in Wales, the North East and Yorkshire &amp; the Humber.</p>
<h2><strong>But transactions are forecast to fall sharply with price falls to follow</strong></h2><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/story/1729166/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;text-align:center;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe>
<h2><strong><br />Falling supply</strong></h2>
<p>However, in many of the housing supply constrained UK city centres, where there is a greater concentration of equity rich buyers, price growth is still expected.</p>
<p>Ultimately new housing supply is expected to fall even further behind target as a result of the tightening market conditions.</p>
<p>JLL forecasts that there will be a national shortfall of 610,000 homes over the next 5 years alone &ndash; up from JLL&rsquo;s previous expectations for an already stark shortfall of 500,000 homes. In London private new home starts are forecast to average
    circa 16,000 per annum &ndash; well below the Greater London Authority target for 52,000 new homes per annum.</p>
<h2><strong>And UK housing supply will continue to fall well short of targets</strong></h2><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/story/1729214/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;text-align:center;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe>
<h2><strong><br />Rental market</strong></h2>
<p>The current supply demand imbalance across the UK rental market looks set to endure as fewer households move across into owner occupation and demand for rental properties increases further.</p>
<p>We expect that prospective buyers, as well as those who would under normal circumstances have transacted under Help to Buy, will remain in the rental market. This adds further fuel to an already constrained rental market and will, we expect, mean the
    supply demand imbalance and resulting rental growth will continue. Rental growth is expected to be particularly strong at the front end of the five-year period before falling back in line with historic norms of circa 2% - 3% as inflation is brought
    back under control.</p>
<p>The outlook for investors is mixed. Demand for rental properties looks set to continue, and forecasts of rising rents and falling prices suggest we could see a rise in yields across the board. But the cost to service debt will remain a key issue for more
    highly indebted landlords.</p>
<p>The purpose-built UK BTR sector is expected to outperform the wider UK rental market in terms of rental value growth.</p>
<h2><strong>Economic Forecasts</strong></h2><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/11646570/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:400px;text-align:center;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe>
<p><br /><br /></p><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/11646658/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:250px;text-align:center;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe>
<h2><strong><br />Forecasts</strong></h2>
<p>
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</p>
<section>
    <div class="row">
        
        <div class="column-four height-100">
            <div style="max-width:540px;">
                <h2><strong>UK House Price Growth (%pa)</strong></h2><img src="https://cms-resi.eu.jll.com/images/default-source/agency/picture3c661fa16-e344-4166-b880-888d9a918512.png?Status=Master&amp;sfvrsn=69cedcd0_1" sf-size="100" alt="" /></div>
            <div style="max-width:540px;">
                <div>
                    <table class="table table-borderless k-table" align="center">
                        <tbody>
                            <tr>
                                <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;text-align:center;">2023</td>
                                <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;text-align:center;">2024</td>
                                <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;text-align:center;">2025</td>
                                <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;text-align:center;">2026</td>
                                <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;text-align:center;">2027</td>
                            </tr>
                            <tr>
                                <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;font-size:24px;font-weight:600;text-align:center;">-6</td>
                                <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;font-size:24px;font-weight:600;text-align:center;">1</td>
                                <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;font-size:24px;font-weight:600;text-align:center;">4</td>
                                <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;font-size:24px;font-weight:600;text-align:center;">5</td>
                                <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;font-size:24px;font-weight:600;text-align:center;">5</td>
                            </tr>
                        </tbody>
                    </table>
                    <h2><strong>Cumulative Growth</strong></h2>
                    <p><strong>8.9%</strong></p>
                </div>
            </div>
        </div>
        

        <div class="column-four height-100">
            <div style="max-width:540px;">
                <h2 style="color:black;"><strong>UK Rental Value Growth (%pa)</strong></h2><img src="https://cms-resi.eu.jll.com/images/default-source/agency/picture2a3722ef1-673e-4ce1-bb95-44b6dae7a33a.png?Status=Master&amp;sfvrsn=cdbed46_1" sf-size="100" alt="" /></div>
            <div style="max-width:540px;">
                <table class="table table-borderless k-table" align="center">
                    <tbody>
                        <tr>
                            <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;text-align:center;">2023</td>
                            <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;text-align:center;">2024</td>
                            <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;text-align:center;">2025</td>
                            <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;text-align:center;">2026</td>
                            <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;text-align:center;">2027</td>
                        </tr>
                        <tr>
                            <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;font-size:24px;font-weight:600;text-align:center;">4</td>
                            <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;font-size:24px;font-weight:600;text-align:center;">3.5</td>
                            <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;font-size:24px;font-weight:600;text-align:center;">2.5</td>
                            <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;font-size:24px;font-weight:600;text-align:center;">2.5</td>
                            <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;font-size:24px;font-weight:600;text-align:center;">2.5</td>
                        </tr>
                    </tbody>
                </table>
                <h2><strong>Cumulative Growth</strong></h2>
                <p><strong>15.9%</strong></p>
            </div>
        </div>
    </div>
</section>
<p><strong><em><sup><br />Forecast disclaimer -&nbsp;</sup></em></strong><em><sup>Forecasting is a complex task at the best of times, but with so many moving parts making predictions in the past six months has been made all the more difficult. As always, we at JLL will continue to revisit our forecasts on a regular basis.</sup><strong></strong></em></p>
<p><sup>Disclaimer: &copy; 2022 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</sup></p>

JLL UK House Price Forecasts - Housing set for a correction, not a crash

correction not crash

Housing set for a correction, not a crash

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<p><strong>PRIVACY NOTICE</strong></p>
<p>Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), together with its subsidiaries and affiliates, is a leading global provider of real estate and investment management services. We take our responsibility to protect the personal information provided to us seriously.</p>
<p>Generally the personal information we collect from you are for the purposes of dealing with your enquiry.</p>
<p>We endeavor to keep your personal information secure with appropriate level of security and keep for as long as we need it for legitimate business or legal reasons. We will then delete it safely and securely. For more information about how JLL processes
    your personal data, please view our <a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/privacy-statement" target="_blank">privacy statement</a>.</p>

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<p>PRIVACY NOTICE</p><p>Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), together with its subsidiaries and affiliates, is a leading global provider of real estate and investment management services. We take our responsibility to protect the personal information provided to us seriously.</p><p>Generally the personal information we collect from you are for the purposes of dealing with your enquiry.</p><p>We endeavor to keep your personal information secure with appropriate level of security and keep for as long as we need it for legitimate business or legal reasons. We will then delete it safely and securely. For more information about how JLL processes your personal data, please view our&nbsp;<a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/privacy-statement" target="_blank">privacy statement</a>.</p>

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<p><strong></strong></p><p><strong>PRIVACY NOTICE</strong></p><p>Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), together with its subsidiaries and affiliates, is a leading global provider of real estate and investment management services. We take our responsibility to protect the personal information provided to us seriously.</p><p>Generally the personal information we collect from you are for the purposes of dealing with your enquiry.</p><p>We endeavor to keep your personal information secure with appropriate level of security and keep for as long as we need it for legitimate business or legal reasons. We will then delete it safely and securely. For more information about how JLL processes your personal data, please view our&nbsp;<a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/privacy-statement" target="_blank">privacy statement</a>.</p><p>&nbsp;</p>

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<p><strong>PRIVACY NOTICE</strong></p><p>Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), together with its subsidiaries and affiliates, is a leading global provider of real estate and investment management services. We take our responsibility to protect the personal information provided to us seriously.</p><p>Generally the personal information we collect from you are for the purposes of dealing with your enquiry.</p><p>We endeavor to keep your personal information secure with appropriate level of security and keep for as long as we need it for legitimate business or legal reasons. We will then delete it safely and securely. For more information about how JLL processes your personal data, please view our&nbsp;<a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/privacy-statement" target="_blank">privacy statement</a>.</p>

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