<div><div id="block-system-main"><article id="node-714" about="/news/2021/10/21/tokyo-demographic-movement-and-residential-market-report-september-2021" typeof="sioc:Item foaf:Document" data-sf-ec-immutable=""><div><div><div><img typeof="foaf:Image" src="https://jll-global-gdim-res.cloudinary.com/image/upload/t_ip-image-optimization/v1634793693/olmwebcontents/ip/prod/xmchscec6zmaqcjwbex6.jpg" width="1240" height="1753" alt="" /></div></div></div><div><div><div property="content:encoded"><p><a href="https://internationalresidential.jll.com.sg/download?pdf=713&amp;return_to=news/2021/10/21/tokyo-demographic-movement-and-residential-market-report-september-2021" target="_blank">Download Report</a></p><div><br /></div></div></div></div></article></div></div><div>&nbsp;</div>

Tokyo Demographic Movement & Residential Market Report – September 2021

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<p>With the October Budget behind us, the outlook for both prices and rents remains positive. The government is forging ahead with its plan to deliver more homes, but it will take some time before we see any real impact on overall supply. Increased government
    borrowing means the latest inflation forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility have come in higher than expected, which could throw some cold water on more bullish forecasts for mortgage rates.&nbsp; But the direction of travel appears to
    be the same, even if it may take a little longer to get there. </p><p>Lack of supply and more competitive mortgage rates are expected to underpin growth in prices over the next five years. Rental growth is expected to exceed inflation and wages over the five-year forecast period, but an increase in activity in the sales
    market means rental growth is expected to lag price growth, with rents forecast to be 17% higher by the end of 2029. </p><h2><strong>2024 outlook</strong></h2><p>Back in May we forecast house prices nationally would rise by 2% in 2024. This was underpinned by a continued resilience and lack of distress in the sales market, with prices holding firm despite the challenge of higher rates and uncertainties in the
    run up to the election (which at that point we were thinking would take place in the autumn). An early election was seen as a positive for the market, but Budget jitters meant much of that hoped for momentum was lost (or at least delayed).</p><p>Looking at the latest government figures (year to August 2024) shows prices have risen 2.8% annually, with more recent Nationwide figures for the year to October at 2.4%. There are obviously a few months to go but we expect year end growth to come in
    marginally above our 2% forecast. Scotland and the north of England are expected to see higher growth. Higher mortgage rates remained most challenging for more expensive markets in London and southern England, with growth in these regions, as forecast,
    lower than other areas of the UK this year.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1730756189/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Resi-Forecast-Chart-1.jpg" /></p><p>We forecast UK rents would end 2024 4.5% higher annually.&nbsp; The ONS Private Rents Index, which we benchmark against, is still showing growth of 8.4% in the year to August, but new lets data from Homelet data shows average rents were 4.3% higher in
    September 2024 than they were a year earlier. We expect ONS figures could end the year higher than our 4.5% forecast, but the significant imbalance between tenant demand and supply has levelled off in recent months so we expect some further heat will
    come out of the rental market as we move into 2025. </p><h2><strong>Lessons from the (recent) past</strong></h2><p>Looking back over the last 25 years, price growth (taken here in five-year chunks to mirror our five-year outlook) shows three distinct periods for growth. Before the Global Financial Crisis five-year growth of 60% or more was the norm. But the period
    of re-correction that followed saw much of this froth removed from the market as five-year growth fell back to single digits or low teens to compensate for the significant tightening of the debt markets. </p><p>But for the last decade, despite significant variation in mortgage rates and a global pandemic, house prices rises over a five-year term have remained remarkably consistent. Peaking in 2017 at 33% but otherwise ranging from 21% to 27%.&nbsp;</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1730756189/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Resi-Forecast-Chart-2.jpg" /></p><h2><strong>UK Economy</strong></h2><style>td,
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<div style="overflow-x:auto;" align="center"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1" align="left"><tbody><tr class="red"><th scope="col"></th><th scope="col">2025</th><th scope="col">2026</th><th scope="col">2027</th><th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2028</th><th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2029</th><th scope="col">Change 2025-29</th></tr><tr><td>CPI (OBR)</td><td>2.6</td><td>2.3</td><td>2.1</td><td>2.1</td><td>2.0</td><td>11.6</td></tr><tr><td>Wages (OE)</td><td>2.7</td><td>2.4</td><td>2.5</td><td>2.8</td><td>2.9</td><td>14.0</td></tr><tr><td>UK GDP (OBR)</td><td>2</td><td>1.8</td><td>1.5</td><td>1.5</td><td>1.6</td><td>8.7</td></tr></tbody></table></div><p style="text-align:left;">Source: JLL Research using Office of Budget Responsibility, Oxford Economics</p><p style="text-align:left;">The outlook for economic growth remains muted, with inflation expected to sit a little higher than the Bank of England&rsquo;s 2% target until 2029.&nbsp; But the Bank of England rate cutting cycle is expected to continue and assuming swap rates settle
    post Budget and the US election we&rsquo;ll likely see mortgage rates fall back too - if not quite as quickly as we had hoped. </p><p style="text-align:left;">Consensus forecasts suggest rate cuts will run through until the end of 2026, with mortgage rates expected to become more competitive over this period. Following a similar trend to 2024 we anticipate lower value markets will benefit first.&nbsp; Activity
    will be driven by first time buyers, with home movers following once rates become more attractive. Higher value markets in London and the south are expected to see stronger growth in the second half of our five-year forecast period.</p><h2><strong>Market activity</strong></h2><style>td,
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<div style="overflow-x:auto;" align="center"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1" align="left"><tbody><tr class="red"><th scope="col" data-role="resizable"></th><th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2024</th><th scope="col">2025</th><th scope="col">2026</th><th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2027</th><th scope="col">2028</th><th scope="col">2029</th></tr><tr><td>Housing Starts</td><td>135,000</td><td>157,000</td><td>179,000</td><td>199,000</td><td>224,000</td><td>244,000</td></tr><tr><td>Transactions</td><td>1.0m</td><td>1.2m</td><td>1.3m</td><td>1.3m</td><td>1.3m</td><td>1.4m</td></tr></tbody></table></div><p>Source: JLL Research, Experian</p><p>Committing to build 1.5 million homes over the course of this parliament, the government has set itself an ambitious target.&nbsp; But ramping up delivery without any demand side stimulus will be a real challenge. Current supply side plans have started
    to put the building blocks in place to ramp up delivery but increasing delivery in a meaningful way with current planning, labour force, and supply chain constraints won&rsquo;t be a quick fix. JLL forecast new housing starts across the UK will total
    1 million homes between 2025 and 2029.&nbsp; Conversions of existing stock (currently accounting for around one in ten net additions) are expected to rise too, so we&rsquo;ve allowed (possibly sightly ambitiously) for 200,000 in the next five years
    taking us to a forecast of 1.2 million homes.<br /></p><h2 style="text-align:left;"><strong>Sales price forecasts</strong></h2><style>td,
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<div style="overflow-x:auto;" align="center"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1" align="left"><tbody><tr class="red"><th scope="col">Sales price growth (% pa)</th><th scope="col">2025</th><th scope="col">2026</th><th scope="col">2027</th><th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2028</th><th scope="col">2029</th><th scope="col">Change 2025-29</th><th scope="col">Average pa 2025-29</th></tr><tr><td>UK</td><td>3.5</td><td>4.0</td><td>4.5</td><td>3.5</td><td>3.0</td><td>19.9</td><td>3.7</td></tr><tr><td>Greater London</td><td>2.5</td><td>3.5</td><td>5.0</td><td>5.0</td><td>4.0</td><td>21.6</td><td>4.0</td></tr></tbody></table></div><p style="text-align:left;">Source: JLL Research </p><p>A new government with ambitious plans for housebuilding and more comfortable with a higher tax environment, particularly for wealthier households, could mean future growth prospects differ from the recent past. But neither of the these seem a sufficient
    departure from the current trend to meaningfully change the path of growth over the coming five-year period (2025-2029). </p><p>We do expect higher rates (even if they fall back from current levels) will limit growth prospects, meaning our 2025-2029 forecasts sit at the lower end of the recent five year averages. </p><p>We expect growth of 19.9% nationally 2025-2029. London house prices are expected to increase by 21.6% over the same period, underpinned by a lack of new homes reaching the market for sale. We expect lower value markets to see stronger growth towards the
    beginning of our five-year forecast period, with more expensive markets outperforming once the rate cutting cycle continues into 2026 and 2027.&nbsp; <br /></p><h2 style="text-align:left;"><strong>Rental forecasts</strong><strong></strong></h2><style>td,
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<div style="overflow-x:auto;" align="center"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1" align="left"><tbody><tr class="red"><th scope="col">Rental growth (% pa)</th><th scope="col">2025</th><th scope="col">2026</th><th scope="col">2027</th><th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2028</th><th scope="col">2029</th><th scope="col">Change 2025-29</th><th scope="col">Average pa 2025-29</th></tr><tr><td>UK</td><td>3.0</td><td>2.5</td><td>3.0</td><td>3.5</td><td>4.0</td><td>17.1</td><td>3.2</td></tr><tr><td>Greater London</td><td>2.5</td><td>3.0</td><td>3.5</td><td>4.0</td><td>4.0</td><td>18.2</td><td>3.4</td></tr><tr><td>UK BTR</td><td>3.0</td><td>3.5</td><td>3.5</td><td>4.5</td><td>4.5</td><td>20.5</td><td>3.8</td></tr></tbody></table></div><p style="text-align:left;">Source: JLL Research </p><p style="text-align:left;">In the five years to September 2024 rents rose nationally by 27%. But the rapid rise in rents in the last three years isn&rsquo;t reflective of the long-term trend.&nbsp; Five-year growth figures in early 2020 sat at around 12%, when rents broadly tracked
    wage growth. </p><p style="text-align:left;">The supply demand imbalance which has in part driven rent rises (wage growth and inflation also contributed) is now becoming more balanced, but a lack of new stock entering the market means we anticipate rental growth will exceed wage growth and inflation
    over the next five years. </p><p style="text-align:left;">The October Budget did little to change our view.&nbsp; Capital Gains Tax for residential property remained the same, meaning exit costs didn&rsquo;t rise, but entry costs did.&nbsp; Landlords looking to purchase homes now having to pay an additional
    2% stamp duty over the previous already elevated bill. We expect this will mean more traditional buy-to-let landlords will leave the market than enter over the next five years. </p><p style="text-align:left;">But activity in the sales market is expected to increase too, likely meaning an increase in tenants moving across into owner occupation, alleviating some demand side pressures in the short term.&nbsp; </p><p style="text-align:left;">JLL forecast UK rents will rise 17% over the next five years, with rental growth in the London expected to total 18% over the same period.</p><h2 style="text-align:left;"><strong>What to watch</strong></h2><ul><li style="text-align:left;"><strong>EPC C by 2030</strong> &ndash; Around half of all privately rented homes nationally are EPC D or below.&nbsp; As we move closer to the 2030 deadline, we expect some landlords will offload less efficient stock or remove properties from the
        market to retrofit to meet the new standard. Expect rents to rise in the run up as stock levels fall. For sales, landlords selling properties could bring more lower value homes to the market impacting average prices.<br /></li><li style="text-align:left;"><strong>Renters Right Bill</strong> &ndash; Current proposals include the provision for tenants to challenge market busting rental increases. Our forecast for lower annual increases will help cushion the impact here but may limit the potential for
        growth in some markets, particularly if the courts are overwhelmed with applicants. Landlords concerned around the impact of the bill could also chose to exit the market, particularly as the sales market improves.<br /></li><li style="text-align:left;"><strong>Buyer incentives</strong> &ndash; With the stamp duty threshold returning to its previous &pound;300,000 level for first time buyers next spring there was surprisingly little in the budget to incentivise buyers.&nbsp; However, there was reference
        to Phase 2 of the Spending Review in Q2 2025, so we could see further incentives or concessions introduced then.<br /></li><li style="text-align:left;"><strong>Rates &ndash; </strong>A more rapid fall in mortgage rates could mean higher value markets see stronger growth earlier.<br /><strong></strong></li><li style="text-align:left;"><strong>Housebuilding &ndash; </strong>The government has ambitious plans for new homes.&nbsp; We do expect activity to increase but still assume starts will lag the 1.5 million target. Our current forecast accounts for stock scarcity in the new homes
        market towards the start of the five-year period with new development activity not expected to be sufficiently high to have any negative impact on prices.<br /></li><li style="text-align:left;"><strong>International buyers and prime London &ndash;</strong> Changes to non-dom rules and increases in SDLT on additional properties mean higher costs for overseas buyers. But a lack of stock, particularly of new homes, means those who are in the
        market may find choice scarce and competition for the best stock remains strong.&nbsp;</li></ul>

JLL Residential Forecast 2025-2029

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Houses prices expected to rise by 20% in the next five years as lower mortgage rates bring buyers back to the market. Rental growth slows from recent highs.

<strong>Houses prices expected to rise by 20% in the next five years as lower mortgage rates bring buyers back to the market. Rental growth slows from recent highs.</strong>

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<p>The announcement on additional borrowing had already unsettled investors in the run up to the budget, driving government borrowing costs to a five-month high.&nbsp; But leaks and briefings on some key policies pre-Budget appear to have had the desired
    effect meaning we&rsquo;re still below post mini-budget levels.</p>
<p>For housing there was little evidence of some of the much-speculated changes we heard rumour of in the run up. Some will see this as a missed opportunity.&nbsp; But this is far from the worst-case scenario many had feared. And clarification on government
    plans, or at least an end to pre-budget speculation, should bring more prospective buyers back to the market.</p>
<p>After all, the housing market looks to be in decent shape.&nbsp; Mortgage approval figures in September were at their highest for more than two years, with lower rates bringing more prospective buyers back to the market.&nbsp; Prices are edging up in
    response and activity across the market is recovering, too.</p>
<p><strong>So what was in the budget for housing? </strong></p>
<h2><strong>UK economy on the path to recovery</strong></h2>
<p>The latest figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) suggest the UK economy will grow by 1.1% this year and by 2.0% in 2025 in real terms. Inflation (CPI) is expected to sit marginally above the 2% target each year until 2029. </p>
<h2><strong>Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT)</strong></h2>
<p>Changes to stamp duty rules mean those purchasing properties in addition to their main residence (buy-to-let and second homes) will now pay a 5% rather than 3% surcharge. Adding &pound;10,000 to the stamp duty bill for a &pound;500,000 home. </p>
<p>The single rate of SDLT charged on the purchase of dwellings costing &pound;500,000 or more by corporate bodies will also rise from 15% to 17%. </p>
<p>Increases in rates were not necessarily viewed as a significant revenue raiser (an extra &pound;400 million by 2029/30) but would rather level the playing field between first time buyers and investors. But extra stamp duty for additional properties was
    not accompanied by an increase in incentives for first time buyers, with nothing in the budget on the first time buyer zero rate thresholds, which are due to drop back from &pound;425,000 to &pound;300,000 in April 2025. Instead, the government has
    committed to consult the industry on extending the mortgage guarantee scheme, effectively a 5% deposit scheme for first time buyers. News on that is promised in Phase 2 of the Spending Review next Spring.</p>
<h2><strong>Capital Gains Tax (CGT)</strong></h2>
<p>Tax on gains for residential property were left at their current level of 18% for lower rate and 24% for higher rate tax payers. Disposal of other assets, including shares, was normalised with residential property at 24%. With suggestions that &lsquo;normalisation&rsquo;
    could have been imposed with income tax rates, this should add some comfort to those in the sector. &nbsp;</p>
<h2><strong>Affordable housing</strong></h2>
<p>The government reaffirmed its commitment to deliver more affordable homes.&nbsp; A &pound;500million top up was promised for the Affordable Homes Programme and a consultation for an ongoing five-year rent settlement at CPI+1 (guaranteeing the rent cap
    on the amount providers can charge) was announced.&nbsp; Those wanting clarity on future grant investment will need to wait until the Spending Review in Q2 next year.</p>
<h2><strong>Right to Buy</strong></h2>
<p>Discounts for those purchasing through Right to Buy scheme will be reduced and councils in England will be able to keep all the receipts from sales to deliver new homes. This will need further investment to stem the loss of social housing through the
    scheme, with the latest annual figures showing 3,046 homes started using Right to Buy receipts versus 6,275 sold. </p>
<h2><strong>Inheritance tax (IHT)</strong></h2>
<p>The Chancellor announced current inheritance tax thresholds will be frozen until 2030, two years ahead of plans pre-budget. This means individuals can continue to leave &pound;325,000 free of tax, rising to &pound;500,000 if leaving your home to your
    children. Couples can inherit each other&rsquo;s allowance, meaning if you tick all the boxes &pound;1million can be left free of IHT. </p>
<p>But new rules will bring previously exempt assets into play, meaning pensions, which had been IHT exempt, will fall within the totals from April 2027. Owners of agricultural and business property, again previously able to benefit from exemptions, will
    from April 2026 need to consider their liabilities over certain thresholds, although allowances will mean an effective rate of 20% rather than 40%. </p>
<h2><strong>Housing supply</strong></h2>
<p>We&rsquo;ve already heard from the government on its plans for delivering more homes, so perhaps a lack of detail within the budget was to be expected. The government committed &pound;5bn to their housing building programme in 2025/26 and repeated its
    commitment to provide 300 new planners (effectively less than one per authority), but the new planning framework (NPPF) due at the end of the year is expected to fill in some further gaps here. </p>
<h2><strong>Non-doms</strong></h2>
<p>As expected, the government announced it will end current non-domiciled tax rules from April 2025 and introduce a new residence-based system. For those looking to bring assets into the UK, the government will extend the temporary repatriation facility
    from two to three years. This isn&rsquo;t new, and follows similar plans announced under the Conservatives. The budget confirmed that only gains made after April 2017 will be considered as part of the new proposals, but the door is still open for
    government to bring worldwide assets within the scope of UK inheritance tax.</p>
<h2><strong>What we missed</strong></h2>
<p>With the government having already announced plans to reinstate ambitious housing targets post-election we had hoped the budget would include some news on stimulus for demand. Yet incentives for home purchase, changes to stamp duty land tax (aside from
    the increase for additional properties) and the reintroduction of Multiple Dwellings Relief were conspicuous in their absence this time around. </p>
<p>More positive news on the UK economy and further interest rate cuts expected before the end of the year will likely support house price growth. But while we acknowledge increasing demand when supply remains low could challenge affordability further, the
    government needs to reassure developers and investors that there will be a market for a higher number of new homes they&rsquo;ve committed to deliver.&nbsp;</p>

Residential Roundup – Budget Special

With the plans from the first Labour Budget in 14 years expected to bring in an extra &pound;40bn &ndash; read Marcus Dixon&rsquo;s overview of what was included for housing, in this week&rsquo;s Residential Roundup.

With the plans from the first Labour Budget in 14 years expected to bring in an extra £40bn – read Marcus Dixon’s overview of what was included for housing, in this week’s Residential Roundup.

<strong>The first Labour Budget in 14 years was never going to please everyone. This was a tax raising Budget, with the Chancellor&rsquo;s plans expected to bring in an extra &pound;40bn. Employers will be shouldering much of the financial responsibility, with funding public services core to Labours plans.</strong>

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Residential Roundup

architecture-close-up-1920x320[1]

<div>There are few who would question the need to deliver more homes. Research from Centre for Cities suggests Britain has a 4.3 million home deficit compared with the average European country. Meaning we would need to build almost 450,000 homes per annum over the next 25 years to satisfy future demand and address the historic deficit. At present we struggle to hit 200,000.</div>

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Residential Roundup - 1 September

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Sale - Price

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Bedrooms

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Rent - Options

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Sale - Options

Country

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