<div><div id="block-system-main"><article id="node-721" about="/news/2021/12/10/uk-residential-forecast-2022-2026" typeof="sioc:Item foaf:Document" data-sf-ec-immutable=""><div><div><div><img typeof="foaf:Image" src="https://jll-global-gdim-res.cloudinary.com/image/upload/t_ip-image-optimization/v1639115417/olmwebcontents/ip/prod/btcfa2vlso31cg2l1sjx.jpg" width="1240" height="1754" alt="" /></div></div></div><div><div><div property="content:encoded"><p><a href="https://internationalresidential.jll.com.sg/download?pdf=720&amp;return_to=news/2021/12/10/uk-residential-forecast-2022-2026" target="_blank">Download Report</a></p><div><br /></div></div></div></div></article></div></div><div>&nbsp;</div>

UK Residential Forecast 2022 – 2026

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<p>2022 was a record-breaking year for Prime
Central London (PCL). Buyers spent almost &pound;5.2
billion on homes last year, 9% higher than in
2021, already a strong year, and the highest
amount spent for more than ten years. Even in
2014, when sales reached &pound;4.94 billion, 5% less
was spent than in 2022.</p><p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/drt5ol8ck/image/upload/v1673866400/videos/APAC%20Articles/JLL_PCL_Report_Q4_2022.pdf" target="_blank">Download report </a></p>

Prime Central London Report - Q4 2022

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thumbnail_Cover Photo - UK Report

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<p><a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/5c2aeccd86c64c6abe619f4e73b8b183" target="_blank"><button class="Button primary">View the full report</button></a></p><br /><p><strong>The JLL Big Six Residential Report compares activity, prices, and rents across six UK cities outside London: Birmingham, Bristol, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds and Manchester. This report incorporates data from the JLL UK Cities index, comparing changes in prices and rents across mainstream and prime developments in each city. </strong></p><p>In the last ten years UK cities have recorded some of the highest increases in new residents. Figures from the 2021 census show that across England &amp; Wales more than 33.6 million people, over 56% of the population, lived in cities, 2 million more
    than in 2011. </p><p>With the pandemic accelerating the adoption of hybrid working some questioned the future of urban living. But the influx of new residents heading for our regional cities proves there is more to city living than just the attraction of a short commute.
</p><p>Demand for homes has risen across our Big Six cities this year. Back in 2020 and early 2021 we saw an acceleration in the number of households looking to leave urban areas and escape to the country. Yet 2022 has firmly signalled the return to the city.
    Students and young professionals are returning in their droves. Rents have risen this year across all our Big Six cities and the new homes market, both build-to-sell and build-to-rent has seen activity increase too. </p><p>Help to Buy has been a key source of demand for city centre new build over the last ten years. Across the four English cities, over 13,200 equity loans have been issued on Help to Buy homes since the beginning of the scheme. &nbsp;But with 31 October
    marking the end of Help to Buy registrations nationally we were already anticipating interest from first-time buyers would fall in 2023. Combine this with recent rate rises and we expect the number of first-time buyers could fall further.&nbsp;But
    with fewer households buying homes we anticipate demand for rental properties will increase. </p><p>Almost 100,000 homes have been completed in the city centres of the Big Six in the last ten years. </p><p>Demand for homes has meant prices achieved in the last three years have risen by an average of 14.6%. The JLL Cities index, which values new flats in each city shows prices have risen by between 4.9% and 17.6%. </p><p>Demand for rental properties has increased too. With rents rising by an average of 15.4% across the Big Six. Leeds recorded the highest annual increase in rents, with scarcity of stock pushing average rents for new homes in the city up by more than 20%
    in summer 2022 compared with the same period a year earlier.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/5c2aeccd86c64c6abe619f4e73b8b183" target="_blank"><button class="Button primary">View the full report</button></a></p>

Big Six Residential Development Report

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The JLL Big Six Residential Report compares activity, prices, and rents across six UK cities outside London: Birmingham, Bristol, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds and Manchester.

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<a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1667401050/resi/gb/Articles/PDFs/JLL_UK_Residential_Forecasts_Q4_2022.pdf" target="_blank"><button class="Button primary">Download full report</button></a>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The last 15 years have seen UK house prices reach new highs on the back of a period of record low borrowing costs. Never prior to 2008 had the UK base interest rate dipped below 2%. But in the period since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) it has averaged
    0.5% and hit a low of 0.1% during Covid.</p>
<h2><strong>Interest Rates</strong></h2><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/11644913/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;text-align:center;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe>
<p><br />A spike in borrowing costs &ndash; and an anticipated further steep rise in mortgage rates - alongside continued high inflation and a rising cost-of-living have prompted predictions from the most bearish forecasters of 20%-30% falls in UK house
    prices. </p>
<p>But UK house prices have never fallen by more than 20%. And this prompts a question of whether the underlying market prospects are now truly worse than the early 90s recession where house prices fell 20% cumulatively between 1989 and 1993; and the GFC
    where prices fell by 15% between January 2008 and May 2009.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2><strong>House price crashes have been rare in the UK</strong></h2><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/11645505/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;text-align:center;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe>
<p>In the early 90s, inflation was high (like today) and GDP was low and falling into negative territory (like today). But, a key differentiator was that unemployment was extremely high at circa 10% in the early 1990s &ndash; today it is at a record low
    of 3.5%. And while unemployment is expected to rise in the coming 18 months, it is expected to hit 4.9%, below the average of 6.7% since 1971 and the past 10-year average of circa 5.2%.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the GFC was fundamentally a credit crisis built on poor lending practices through the early 2000s which saw people with poor credit history and no equity lent sums of money they could ill-afford to repay. Ultimately the &lsquo;house of cards&rsquo;
    collapsed, banks failed, millions lost their jobs and people were forced to walk away from mortgages they could never afford in the first place.</p>
<p>In the period since, lending practices have been tightened significantly &ndash; and the housing market is now built upon much stronger foundations.</p>
<h2><strong>Absence of distress</strong></h2>
<p>JLL analysis of the Bank of England Mortgage and Lending Report found that 62% of the UK&rsquo;s 8.4m mortgaged owner occupier households have at least 25% equity in their house. Another 34% have between 10-25% equity and 4% have between 5% and 10% equity.</p>
<p>Just 0.2% or circa 17,000 owner occupied households in the UK have less than 5% equity &ndash; and, statistically at least, there are no households with zero equity. Meanwhile, more than 95% of the circa 3m UK buy to let landlords who own with a mortgage,
    own at least 20% in their property.</p>
<h2><strong>Mortgage affordability</strong></h2>
<p>But ultimately the amount of equity the UK&rsquo;s homeowners possess only tells half of the story. An era of cheap borrowing is ending and mortgage affordability is about to become squeezed. However, mortgaged households in the UK have the highest incomes
    by tenure &ndash; averaging &pound;80,000 per annum. Before the recent rise in UK interest rates, the average household income spent on a UK mortgage was equivalent to 18%. With the average two-year fixed rate mortgage cost having risen to circa 6%,
    that income to mortgage expenditure percentage has risen to circa 27% - the level it was around the time of the Global Financial Crisis. And if mortgage rates hit 7%, the average household income to mortgage cost ratio would hit 30% - the rate it
    was in the early 1990s. But merely spending 30% of a household income on housing costs is not a reason to assume a collapse into distress. With low unemployment and the highest average incomes, the UK&rsquo;s mortgaged households have a more stable
    financial footing than the GFC or the early 1990s recession.</p>
<p>The vast majority should be able to ride out a squeeze on their household incomes avoiding the need to sell their home to make ends meet. But it will be a further extension of the current cost of living crisis.</p>
<p>Circa 1.1m households were on the current Standard Variable Rate coming into this recent rate rise. Another 1.2m households will come to the end of their fixed term over the next year. JLL calculates that those 2.3m households combined will be spending
    an additional &pound;8bn on mortgages by Q4 2023. This could ease some of the current high inflation, but it could also hamper GDP growth. The customers spending that extra on their mortgage would perhaps most likely be transferring that from their
    previous savings/investment allocations or from their typical discretionary spend on food, leisure and entertainment.</p>
<h2><strong>Low repossessions</strong></h2>
<p>Furthermore, banks currently have a low appetite for repossessions. In the early 1990s, banks repossessed circa 100,000 homes per annum. In the GFC the rate was about 50,000 per annum. Currently there are about 4,000 repossessions per annum which out
    of the UK&rsquo;s circa 11m mortgage properties represents a rate of about 0.04% per year. It takes two years to repossess a home &ndash; and in the current cost of living crisis, it could be a difficult public profile position to be seen to be adopting
    a repossession strategy. However, banks are a regulated entity so they cannot turn a blind eye to customer defaults. But there are other options that can be explored such as tracker rates or interest only periods and it is highly likely banks will
    exhaust all these options before pursuing a route of foreclosure.</p>
<h2><strong>Opportunistic buyers</strong></h2>
<p>Ultimately, we expect that there will be far less distress in the market as there was in previous crashes &ndash; as long as there is no sharp rise in unemployment.</p>
<p>But JLL predicts there will be a steep fall in UK housing transactions.</p>
<p>The number of First Time Buyers (FTBs) before the GFC typically totalled 400,000 per annum out of a total of circa 1.5m annual transactions.</p>
<p>Post GFC, FTBs fell to 325,000 and total transactions to 1.2m. JLL predicts there will now be circa 200,000 viable FTBs with sentiment among aspiring homeowners taking a hit, mortgage affordability becoming stretched to new homeowners and the ending of
    help to buy, which typically helped circa 50,000 FTBs onto the ladder per annum. This cocktail of transactional headwinds will see overall transactions fall to circa 1m in 2023.</p>
<p>The transactions that do occur will be dominated by slightly more motivated sellers (but not financially distressed) faced with a higher proportion of &lsquo;opportunistic&rsquo; buyers (such as cash buyers who will account for about 25% of all transactions,
    up from the current 18%). These opportunistic buyers will not expect to pay asking price. But the vendors who are not distressed will only accept a fall in values to a certain level &ndash; ie more of a discount than a fully blown correction and certainly
    not a crash.<strong></strong></p>
<h2><strong>Sluggish market</strong></h2>
<p>This dynamic will create a sluggish market in which buyers and vendors haggle over price and ultimately less transactional activity occurs with the supply of new homes for sale gradually becoming constrained.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Against this backdrop, JLL is forecasting that UK house prices will fall in value in 2023 by 6% which equates to an average discount of &pound;17,500 from the average UK house price of circa &pound;290,000.</p>
<p>Of course, as in any market, there will be winners and losers. Not all types of home, cities or regions will be impacted to same level.</p>
<p>On a regional level JLL&rsquo;s forecasts falls ranging from circa 4% across Greater London to around 8% in Wales, the North East and Yorkshire &amp; the Humber.</p>
<h2><strong>But transactions are forecast to fall sharply with price falls to follow</strong></h2><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/story/1729166/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;text-align:center;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe>
<h2><strong><br />Falling supply</strong></h2>
<p>However, in many of the housing supply constrained UK city centres, where there is a greater concentration of equity rich buyers, price growth is still expected.</p>
<p>Ultimately new housing supply is expected to fall even further behind target as a result of the tightening market conditions.</p>
<p>JLL forecasts that there will be a national shortfall of 610,000 homes over the next 5 years alone &ndash; up from JLL&rsquo;s previous expectations for an already stark shortfall of 500,000 homes. In London private new home starts are forecast to average
    circa 16,000 per annum &ndash; well below the Greater London Authority target for 52,000 new homes per annum.</p>
<h2><strong>And UK housing supply will continue to fall well short of targets</strong></h2><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/story/1729214/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;text-align:center;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe>
<h2><strong><br />Rental market</strong></h2>
<p>The current supply demand imbalance across the UK rental market looks set to endure as fewer households move across into owner occupation and demand for rental properties increases further.</p>
<p>We expect that prospective buyers, as well as those who would under normal circumstances have transacted under Help to Buy, will remain in the rental market. This adds further fuel to an already constrained rental market and will, we expect, mean the
    supply demand imbalance and resulting rental growth will continue. Rental growth is expected to be particularly strong at the front end of the five-year period before falling back in line with historic norms of circa 2% - 3% as inflation is brought
    back under control.</p>
<p>The outlook for investors is mixed. Demand for rental properties looks set to continue, and forecasts of rising rents and falling prices suggest we could see a rise in yields across the board. But the cost to service debt will remain a key issue for more
    highly indebted landlords.</p>
<p>The purpose-built UK BTR sector is expected to outperform the wider UK rental market in terms of rental value growth.</p>
<h2><strong>Economic Forecasts</strong></h2><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/11646570/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:400px;text-align:center;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe>
<p><br /><br /></p><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/11646658/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:250px;text-align:center;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe>
<h2><strong><br />Forecasts</strong></h2>
<p>
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<section>
    <div class="row">
        
        <div class="column-four height-100">
            <div style="max-width:540px;">
                <h2><strong>UK House Price Growth (%pa)</strong></h2><img src="https://cms-resi.eu.jll.com/images/default-source/agency/picture3c661fa16-e344-4166-b880-888d9a918512.png?Status=Master&amp;sfvrsn=69cedcd0_1" sf-size="100" alt="" /></div>
            <div style="max-width:540px;">
                <div>
                    <table class="table table-borderless k-table" align="center">
                        <tbody>
                            <tr>
                                <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;text-align:center;">2023</td>
                                <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;text-align:center;">2024</td>
                                <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;text-align:center;">2025</td>
                                <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;text-align:center;">2026</td>
                                <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;text-align:center;">2027</td>
                            </tr>
                            <tr>
                                <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;font-size:24px;font-weight:600;text-align:center;">-6</td>
                                <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;font-size:24px;font-weight:600;text-align:center;">1</td>
                                <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;font-size:24px;font-weight:600;text-align:center;">4</td>
                                <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;font-size:24px;font-weight:600;text-align:center;">5</td>
                                <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;font-size:24px;font-weight:600;text-align:center;">5</td>
                            </tr>
                        </tbody>
                    </table>
                    <h2><strong>Cumulative Growth</strong></h2>
                    <p><strong>8.9%</strong></p>
                </div>
            </div>
        </div>
        

        <div class="column-four height-100">
            <div style="max-width:540px;">
                <h2 style="color:black;"><strong>UK Rental Value Growth (%pa)</strong></h2><img src="https://cms-resi.eu.jll.com/images/default-source/agency/picture2a3722ef1-673e-4ce1-bb95-44b6dae7a33a.png?Status=Master&amp;sfvrsn=cdbed46_1" sf-size="100" alt="" /></div>
            <div style="max-width:540px;">
                <table class="table table-borderless k-table" align="center">
                    <tbody>
                        <tr>
                            <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;text-align:center;">2023</td>
                            <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;text-align:center;">2024</td>
                            <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;text-align:center;">2025</td>
                            <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;text-align:center;">2026</td>
                            <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;text-align:center;">2027</td>
                        </tr>
                        <tr>
                            <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;font-size:24px;font-weight:600;text-align:center;">4</td>
                            <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;font-size:24px;font-weight:600;text-align:center;">3.5</td>
                            <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;font-size:24px;font-weight:600;text-align:center;">2.5</td>
                            <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;font-size:24px;font-weight:600;text-align:center;">2.5</td>
                            <td style="min-width:50px;width:20%;font-size:24px;font-weight:600;text-align:center;">2.5</td>
                        </tr>
                    </tbody>
                </table>
                <h2><strong>Cumulative Growth</strong></h2>
                <p><strong>15.9%</strong></p>
            </div>
        </div>
    </div>
</section>
<p><strong><em><sup><br />Forecast disclaimer -&nbsp;</sup></em></strong><em><sup>Forecasting is a complex task at the best of times, but with so many moving parts making predictions in the past six months has been made all the more difficult. As always, we at JLL will continue to revisit our forecasts on a regular basis.</sup><strong></strong></em></p>
<p><sup>Disclaimer: &copy; 2022 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</sup></p>

JLL UK House Price Forecasts - Housing set for a correction, not a crash

correction not crash

Housing set for a correction, not a crash

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JLL Residential Research Report | August 2022

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label="£2,000,000"
value=2000000
[max.12]
label="£3,000,000"
value=3000000
[max.13]
label="£4,000,000"
value=4000000
[max.14]
label="£5,000,000+"
value=1000000000

Sale - Price

title="Bedrooms"
metric="bedrooms"
type="minmax"
name="bed"
order=2

[min]
[min.0]
label="No Min"
value=""
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label="Studio"
value=0
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[min.3]
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value=2
[min.4]
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value=3
[min.5]
label="4 bedrooms"
value=4
[min.6]
label="5 bedrooms"
value=5
[min.7]
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value=6
[min.8]
label="7 bedrooms"
value=7
[min.9]
label="8+ bedrooms"
value=8

[max]
[max.0]
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[max.8]
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value=7
[max.200]
label="8+ bedrooms"
value=200

Bedrooms

title="Property Type"
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placeholder="Any Type"
order=3

[[options]]
label="Any Type"
value=""
[[options]]
label="Flats"
value="flats"
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label="Houses"
value="houses"

Property Type

type

title="Options"
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value="short-term"
[[options]]
label="Furnished"
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value="unfurnished"

Rent - Options

flags

Options

title="Country"
type="checkboxes"
name="flags"
order=4

[[options]]
label="United Kingdom"
value="United Kingdom"
[[options]]
label="Germany"
value="Germany"
[[options]]
label="Portugal"
value="Portugal"
[[options]]
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value="Japan"


Sale - Options

Country

Singapore

Hong Kong

Malaysia

China

Property Enquiry

<p><strong>PRIVACY NOTICE</strong></p>
<p>Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), together with its subsidiaries and affiliates, is a leading global provider of real estate and investment management services. We take our responsibility to protect the personal information provided to us seriously.</p>
<p>Generally the personal information we collect from you are for the purposes of dealing with your enquiry.</p>
<p>We endeavor to keep your personal information secure with appropriate level of security and keep for as long as we need it for legitimate business or legal reasons. We will then delete it safely and securely. For more information about how JLL processes
    your personal data, please view our <a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/privacy-statement" target="_blank">privacy statement</a>.</p>

Arrange View

anythingElse

date

email

firstName

generalEnquiry

intlDialCode

lastName

marketingOptin

submit

telephone

time

userAction

videoOption

Let us know your preferred time for a viewing and we will get in touch with you to confirm a time.

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Arrange a viewing

<p>PRIVACY NOTICE</p><p>Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), together with its subsidiaries and affiliates, is a leading global provider of real estate and investment management services. We take our responsibility to protect the personal information provided to us seriously.</p><p>Generally the personal information we collect from you are for the purposes of dealing with your enquiry.</p><p>We endeavor to keep your personal information secure with appropriate level of security and keep for as long as we need it for legitimate business or legal reasons. We will then delete it safely and securely. For more information about how JLL processes your personal data, please view our&nbsp;<a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/privacy-statement" target="_blank">privacy statement</a>.</p>

General Enquiry

<p><strong></strong></p><p><strong>PRIVACY NOTICE</strong></p><p>Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), together with its subsidiaries and affiliates, is a leading global provider of real estate and investment management services. We take our responsibility to protect the personal information provided to us seriously.</p><p>Generally the personal information we collect from you are for the purposes of dealing with your enquiry.</p><p>We endeavor to keep your personal information secure with appropriate level of security and keep for as long as we need it for legitimate business or legal reasons. We will then delete it safely and securely. For more information about how JLL processes your personal data, please view our&nbsp;<a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/privacy-statement" target="_blank">privacy statement</a>.</p><p>&nbsp;</p>

Gated Content Form

Valuation

<p><strong>PRIVACY NOTICE</strong></p><p>Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), together with its subsidiaries and affiliates, is a leading global provider of real estate and investment management services. We take our responsibility to protect the personal information provided to us seriously.</p><p>Generally the personal information we collect from you are for the purposes of dealing with your enquiry.</p><p>We endeavor to keep your personal information secure with appropriate level of security and keep for as long as we need it for legitimate business or legal reasons. We will then delete it safely and securely. For more information about how JLL processes your personal data, please view our&nbsp;<a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/privacy-statement" target="_blank">privacy statement</a>.</p>

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