<div><div id="block-system-main"><article id="node-721" about="/news/2021/12/10/uk-residential-forecast-2022-2026" typeof="sioc:Item foaf:Document" data-sf-ec-immutable=""><div><div><div><img typeof="foaf:Image" src="https://jll-global-gdim-res.cloudinary.com/image/upload/t_ip-image-optimization/v1639115417/olmwebcontents/ip/prod/btcfa2vlso31cg2l1sjx.jpg" width="1240" height="1754" alt="" /></div></div></div><div><div><div property="content:encoded"><p><a href="https://internationalresidential.jll.com.sg/download?pdf=720&amp;return_to=news/2021/12/10/uk-residential-forecast-2022-2026" target="_blank">Download Report</a></p><div><br /></div></div></div></div></article></div></div><div>&nbsp;</div>

UK Residential Forecast 2022 – 2026

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<p>Following the September meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee held the UK Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent, with the number of doves remaining at six and the hawks (favouring tighter economic policy and higher rates) at three. Despite the position remaining
    the same as at their last meeting, expectations of a rate hike, fuelled by comments from the Governor Andrew Bailey that &ldquo;policy may have to tighten&rdquo;, mean focus has now shifted to the next meeting (post-Budget) on 5th November. This all
    appears to leave the Bank of England as the outlier. But it is important to remember that the UK went into this at a different point in the rate-cutting cycle, with the differential between the UK and ECB rates widening since mid-2024 as they cut
    rates earlier.</p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1790070596/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/Slide1-_Residential_Roundup_-_18_September.png" /><sup>Source: Bank of England</sup>
<h2>Economy</h2>
<p>High oil and energy costs (both a global, not just local, issue) are feeding into higher inflation. The latest CPI figures show the annual rate rising from 2.9 per cent to 3.1 per cent. This wasn&rsquo;t a surprise for economists, but with inflation expected
    to exceed 4 per cent by early 2027, double the Bank&rsquo;s 2 per cent target, it cannot be as easily dismissed as the blip some had hoped for. </p>
<p>As a result, swaps and mortgage rates remain elevated. Moneyfacts figures show average rates on two-year fixes at 5.77 per cent, the highest since May, and five-year fixed rates reaching 5.83 per cent, a level not seen since November 2023.</p>
<p>But another announcement from the Bank of England, this time in relation to gilts, is more welcome. The announcement that the Bank will pause all bond sales for six months or more and hold onto some of its longest-dated gilts was welcomed by the markets.
    As a result, 30-year gilt yields fell 0.12 percentage points to reach 5.74 per cent, marking the best day for markets since May and some much-needed relief from higher borrowing costs </p>
<h2>Housing market</h2>
<p>Rents rose nationally by 3.8 per cent in the 12 months to August, the highest annual increase so far this year. All regional markets except the South East saw rents rise at rates above-inflation, with the North East and North West both recording the highest
    annual increase at 5.8 per cent. In the sales market, just two regions (North East and North West) saw above inflation increases, nationally, prices rose 1.4 per cent, with London and the South West both seeing price falls of -3.3 per cent and -0.2
    per cent respectively.</p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1790070596/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/Slide2-Residential_Roundup_-_18_September.png" /><sup>Source: JLL Research using HomeLet, ONS, Bank of England &ndash; assumes two-year fix at 75% LTV</sup>
<h2>Rent or buy?</h2>
<p>Higher mortgage costs mean that in pricier markets the difference in cost between buying and renting a home is increasing. In London, where almost a third of homes are rented privately, it would cost on average 9 per cent more to buy a home rather than
    rent, based on average values. This compares with the period pre-2022 when buying a home with a 75 per cent loan-to-value mortgage was broadly the same cost. While some buyers could in theory bridge the monthly cost gap to buy a home, the ability
    to save a deposit remains a significant barrier. The average deposit for those looking to put down 25 per cent would be almost &pound;139,000, the equivalent of saving more than five years&rsquo; rent. Even at a 10 per cent deposit, prospective buyers
    would need to save the equivalent of two years&rsquo; rent. </p>
<h2>Housebuilding</h2>
<p>Barratt Redrow, the UK&rsquo;s largest residential developer, has trimmed its annual completion target to 17,500&ndash;17,900 homes, down from earlier guidance of 17,700&ndash;18,200. This follows an improvement in housing delivery in the year to June,
    with 17,667 homes delivered, up 5 per cent on the previous 12-month period. Chief Executive David Thomas pointed to resource-strapped local authorities as one of the reasons behind their expectations of a reduction in output over the coming year,
    with site opening delays limiting the group to around 405 active developments this year. </p>
<p>The financials painted a mixed picture. Statutory pre-tax profit jumped 48 per cent to &pound;363.5m, but adjusted profit slipped 7 per cent to &pound;572.8m as construction costs climbed and house prices edged down roughly 1 per cent. Still, the adjusted
    profit figure beat analyst expectations, sending shares up 11.7 per cent.</p>
<p style="font-size:15px;">JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing. </p>
<p><sup>Disclaimer: &copy; 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property</sup></p>

The Residential Roundup - 18 September

uae-residential-market-demonstrates-resilience-in-q1-2026

The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates to 1.25 per cent, a 31-year high. This follows similar moves from the Federal Reserve, which increased rates this week for the first time in more than three years, rising to 3.75 per cent to 4 per cent.

<strong>The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates to 1.25 per cent, a 31-year high. This follows similar moves from the Federal Reserve, which increased rates this week for the first time in more than three years, rising to 3.75 per cent to 4 per cent. The European Central Bank is in a hawkish mood too, increasing rates by 25 basis points at their September meeting, the second rate rise since June.</strong>

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<p>The UAE residential market experienced notable recalibration during Q2 2026, with both sales prices and rental rates moderating from elevated levels. Dubai's total sales value reached AED 87.9 billion, though transaction volumes declined 28.6% year-on-year
    as regional uncertainty affected buyer sentiment.</p>
<p>Government intervention defined the quarter, with Abu Dhabi freezing rental increases and Dubai launching the Flexi Rent initiative to improve affordability through flexible payment terms. These coordinated policy measures signal a fundamental shift toward
    enhanced tenant protection and market stability.</p>
<p>With approximately 40,000 units scheduled for delivery in H2 2026, developers are increasingly partnering with international brands to differentiate their offerings amid rising competition. Abu Dhabi showed greater resilience with new rental registrations
    up 9.9% in H1 2026, while quarter-on-quarter trends indicate softening momentum across both emirates as cooling demand and expanding supply continue to reshape the market landscape.</p>
<p><strong>For detailed market analysis and insights, <a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1789547237/resi/gb/cms/News/PDFs/UAE_Living_Market_Dynamics_-_Q2_2026.pdf" target="_blank">download the full Q2 2026 UAE Living Market Dynamics report.</a></strong></p>

UAE Residential Market Recalibrates in Q2 2026

uae-residential-market-recalibrates-in-q2-2026

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<p>The UAE residential market demonstrated relative resilience during Q1 2026 despite regional conflict impacting transaction activity from late March. Dubai's total sales value reached AED 137.3 billion, with transaction volumes up 3.9% year-on-year, though
    weekly transaction values declined nearly 50% at the conflict's peak compared to pre-conflict averages.</p>
<p>Sales prices continued growing but at a decelerating pace, with Dubai's average prices increasing 9.0% annually, moderating from previous 16-19% appreciation rates. Abu Dhabi's off-plan market drove transaction volumes to more than double year-on-year,
    supported by new project launches, while rental rates showed strong momentum with apartments up 14.3% and townhouses rising 17.8%.</p>
<p>With approximately 59,000 units under construction scheduled for delivery in 2026, the conflict heightened risks to supply-demand equilibrium. Developers began offering incentives including cash discounts, flexible payment plans, and waived fees to maintain
    sales momentum, though these remained constrained to specific segments. The off-plan market showed relative resilience compared to the secondary market, which experienced sharper declines as uncertainty challenged buyer sentiment in certain segments.</p>
<p><strong>For detailed market analysis and insights, <a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1789547237/resi/gb/cms/News/PDFs/UAE_Living_Market_Dynamics_-_Q1_2026.pdf" target="_blank">download the full Q1 2026 UAE Living Market Dynamics report.</a></strong></p>

UAE Residential Market Demonstrates Resilience in Q1 2026

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<p>As a result, we&rsquo;ve seen further hikes in government bond yields, with UK gilts rising to their highest level since the financial crisis in 2008 or in some cases even longer. 30-year gilts hit 5.89 per cent earlier this week, their highest since
    1998, with 10-year gilts at 5.25 per cent.</p>
<p>This won&rsquo;t be a welcome return to work for Andy Burnham or his new Chancellor, with estimates suggesting higher bond yields could wipe more than &pound;10bn from John Healey&rsquo;s fiscal headroom in advance of the next Budget on 28 October. And
    with the Office for Budget Responsibility running its usual calculations in the run-up, even if conditions improve it&rsquo;s likely that these will feed into their forecast. Meaning the government will be expected to spend more servicing debt.
</p>
<p>There are likely some new leadership wobbles impacting here too, but this is far from a UK specific issue. Indeed, the UK economy has been more resilient than many had expected earlier in the year. Back in January the consensus forecast for UK GDP was
    for growth of 1 per cent in 2026. Following heightened geopolitical uncertainty this dropped back to 0.6 per cent in the Spring, but expectations have returned to January&rsquo;s 1 per cent figure in the latest August consensus numbers. Inflation
    expectations remain higher than they were back in January, but despite recent increases inflation is expected to top out below some of the higher forecasts we&rsquo;ve seen in recent months.</p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1789449805/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/Slide1.png" />
<h2>House prices </h2>
<p>Mortgage approvals dropped back in July, with 15 per cent fewer approvals for house purchase than in the same month a year earlier. An assortment of housing stats released over the summer have pointed to what remains a broadly flat market.</p>
<p>The Nationwide House Price Index, the first to report August figures, shows prices were 1.6 per cent higher than they were a year ago. This is a slightly rosier picture than that portrayed by the Lloyds Index (formerly the Halifax House Price Index) which
    puts prices just 0.1 per cent higher than July 2025 (we&rsquo;ll need to wait until Monday for their August number). Most markets have seen marginal price increases, but price growth has remained broadly below inflation. This means that affordability
    continues to improve, at least when viewed on a house price-to-income ratio basis. Nationwide figures show inflation adjusted house prices are 18 per cent lower than they were in Q1 2022 (non-inflation adjusted they are 7 per cent higher) with the
    house price to household income ratio nationally at its lowest since 2014 at 5.6X income. But higher mortgage rates continue to erode the benefits of the increase in spending power.</p>
<h2>Mortgage markets</h2>
<p>Higher bond yields and sticky inflation have impacted swap rates, meaning average fixed rates have crept up in recent months, all at a time when we&rsquo;d been hoping for some respite. Those shopping for a two-year fix are currently paying an average
    of 5.5 per cent according to Moneyfacts, with best-buy rates circa 4.5. This means that homeowners are having to pay more each month to borrow the same amount or if they keep their outgoings the same are forced to borrow less.</p>
<p>If we take an average priced London home, currently &pound;554,000 according to the Land Registry, those purchasing at 75 per cent loan to value over 25-years would be paying just over &pound;2,550 per month for a repayment mortgage at 5.5 per cent. This
    is almost &pound;3,000 a year more than those who managed to secure a 4.5 per cent fix, and almost &pound;6,000 a year higher than if rates were at 3.5 per cent&mdash;the level best-buys hit back in early February.</p>
<p>Or to keep repayments at the &pound;2,000 a month paid at 3.5 per cent buyers paying 4.5 per cent would be borrowing &pound;40,000 less and at 5.5 per cent their borrowing power would be reduced by &pound;76,000.</p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1789449807/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/Slide2.png" />
<h2>Rental Market</h2>
<p>A cautious sales market continues to benefit lettings. July figures from HomeLet show rents rose 4.3 per cent nationally in the last 12 months, with rents in London rising 6 per cent over the same period.</p>
<p>Respondents to the latest RICS survey reported an increase in new tenant enquiries for the seventh consecutive month. Meanwhile, landlord instructions remained down, with a net balance of -22 per cent reporting a fall&mdash;the last time more respondents
    reported an increase was back in March 2022.</p>
<h2>Checking our homework</h2>
<p>With English schools heading back this week it's a good opportunity to check our view on 2026. We reforecast house prices and rents back in May, downgrading our short-term outlook for prices and increasing our rental expectations for 2026. </p>
<p>Using the latest government figures shows average prices are currently 1.2 per cent higher nationally in June than they were in December. We&rsquo;re forecasting the year to end broadly flat (down 0.5 per cent), which would mean a fall in prices of 1.7
    per cent in H2. In London we&rsquo;re expecting prices to fall 2.5 per cent this year. Current annual falls sit at that level, but prices have risen marginally since December, meaning to end the year at 2.5 per cent down we&rsquo;d need a 3.3 per
    cent reduction in prices in H2.</p>
<p>Average rents (for both new lets and existing tenancies from the ONS Private Rents Index) are up 1.9 per cent since December and 3.7 per cent annually. We're forecasting 3.5 per cent for 2026, meaning we'll need a further 1.6 per cent (or &pound;22) increase
    to rents to hit our December forecast. In London we're forecasting 3 per cent this year, rents rose 2.2 per cent to December to July (up 3 per cent annually) meaning just a further 0.8 per cent needed between now and December. Not far off for the
    UK but a bit light for London? We'll need to wait and see. </p>
<p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing.</p>
<p><sup>Disclaimer: &copy; 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property</sup></p>

Residential Roundup - 4 September

Blog Post 4

With so many returning from their summer break we had hoped to share some more positive news on rates. It’s not all negative, but elevated fuel and energy costs continue to keep the market guessing on inflation, both domestically and overseas. 

<strong>With so many returning from their summer break we had hoped to share some more positive news on rates. It&rsquo;s not all negative, but elevated fuel and energy costs continue to keep the market guessing on inflation, both domestically and overseas.&nbsp;</strong>

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